Archive for November, 2009

GoLearn Forex Analysis 30/11/2009

Monday, November 30th, 2009

Moving Averages Are Not So Average by GoLearn Forex

Moving Averages – they are not so average

EUR/USD and USD/CHF

On Thursday of last week we saw the EUR and CHF finally break near term resistance.  The EUR cleanly sliced through 1.50 and took out near term resistance around the 1.5055 handle.  The CHF finally broke parity with the Dollar after struggling for weeks.

The very next day the Dollar was saved by the news coming out of Dubai. Risk aversion was on as traders unwound short Dollar positions to cover themselves.  We discuss Moving Averages a fair amount especially since the 50 SMA has acted as support for such an extended period of time and for a number of currencies such as the EUR and CHF.

The CHF touched .9918 on Wednesday only to give back its gains on Thursday.  In the Chart below notice the CHF low on Friday as fear penetrated the market place.  As a sense of calm returned the CHF was again bouncing off the 50 SMA, as support held again.

INSERT CHART CHF

The EUR easily breached resistance last Wednesday when the DXY hit new lows for the year.  As you can see on the Chart below it closed just below the Fibonacci Retrace level of 76.4%.  The very next day the EUR gave back all its gains as the market was reeling from the news of the day.

As details emerged and fear stirred recent wounds in the market the EUR plummeted again. Notice the level the EUR hit before retracing its losses on Friday.  The 50 SMA again held support for the EUR.CHF1

INSERT CHART EUR

The moral here: Do not discount these as just “average” lines.  Even if you question the indicative validity of a moving average the very fact that institutional traders monitor these levels makes them exceptionally important if for no other reason.

EUR1

Mixed Day for Global Equity Markets After Dubai’s Announcement by GoLearn Forex

It was a mixed day for the Global Equity Markets on Friday following Dubai’s debt default announcement the day before.  The markets in Asia continued to sell off while in Europe they apparently felt the exposure was sufficiently contained.  In the U.S on Friday after returning from Holiday the day prior, it was the DJIA’s turn to take some risk off the table as it closed lower by 154.48 points to 10,309.92 Opening session futures are pointing positive in premarket hours.

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) Central Bank issued a statement indicating they would offer financing to the local and foreign banks at 50bp over the 3month local benchmark rate.  This facility offered by the U.A.E C.B will ensure liquidity and restore some confidence in the market.

On the economic data docket for Monday we have a number items set to print out of the U.K.  However, forex traders will be analyzing Black Friday sales numbers as well as the ensuing weekend figures.  Currently, net sales figures look to be on par with last year.  Additionally for Monday, Euro-zone CPI will hit the wire as will Canadian GDP.

Upcoming Forex Events for November 30, 2009

EUR     CPI (YoY)      Forecast   0.40%  Previous  -0.10%

CAD    GDP (MoM)    Forecast  0.40%  Previous  -0.10%

USD    Chicago PMI    Forecast  53.00  Previous  54.20

AUD    Interest Rate Decision Forecast  3.75%  Previous  3.50%

Analysis by http://www.golearnforex.net

Daily Review 30/11/2009

Monday, November 30th, 2009

USD Dollar (USD)

The Dollar lowered versus most majors on Friday as Dubai debt concerns were reduced due to UAE’s pledge to back foreign and domestic banks in Dubai. NASDAQ and Dow Jones dropped by -1.73% and -1.48% after being closed on Thursday due to Thanksgiving. Crude fell by -2.45% closing at 76.05$ a barrel and Gold (XAU) fell for the first time in 9 days with -1.08% change closing at 1174.2$ an ounce. Today, Chicago PMI is expected weaker with 53.1 versus 54.2 prior.

EURO (EUR)

The Euro gained slightly versus the Dollar on Friday’s session as liquidity was lower and stocks declined as a result of Dubai’s financial crisis. The Euro paired its losses as rumors of the UAE backing Dubai’s bank leaked to the market. EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4828 and with a high of 1.50. Today, CPI Flash Estimate is expected with 0.5% versus -0.1% prior.

EUR/USD – Last: 1.5025

Resistance

1.5055

1.5100

Support

1.4950

1.4870

1.4825

British Pound (GBP)

The Pound gained versus the Dollar after UAE’s pledge to back Dubai raised risk appetite again lifting the Pound from its monthly lows. Overall, GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6271 and a high of 1.6510. Today, Net Lending to Individuals is expected with 0.8B versus 0.6B prior, stronger result will lead to less need to expend Britain’s QE program. Mortgage Approvals are expected stronger with 59K versus 56K prior.

GBP/USD – Last: 1.6540

Resistance

1.6590

1.6650

Support

1.6450

1.6375

1.6325

Japanese Yen (JPY)

The Yen weakened versus the Dollar as uncertainty about the Dubai crisis lowered following UAE’s announcement. Investors shifted back from the safety of the Yen to higher yielding currencies. Overall, USD/JPY traded with a low of 85.08 and a high of 87.01 and EUR/JPY traded with a low of 127.38 and a high of 130.14. No economic data expected today.

USD/JPY-Last: 86.80

Resistance

87.05

87.50

88.00

Support

86.30

85.75

85.25

Canadian dollar (CAD)

The Canadian Dollar remained unchanged versus the Dollar as commodities prices dropped but Dubai’s financial crisis uncertainty lowered. Current Account came out weaker than expected with -13.1B versus -12.9B forecast and -11.9B prior. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.0585 and a high of 1.0748. Today, GDP is expected stronger with 0.4% versus -0.1% prior. RMPI is expected stronger with 3.1% versus -1.1% prior.

CAD/USD – Last: 1.0585

Resistance

1.0650

1.0700

1.0750

Support

1.0570

1.0540

1.0505

Research by http://www.ufxbank.com

Know the risks of Forex Options Trading

Monday, November 30th, 2009

Whenever, it comes to investment, generally people do associate it with risks. This is particularly true in case of forex agreement, where the risk of a specific loss can be very high. Therefore, before you determine to trade in forex, ensure that you know the risks involved into it. By having, an idea of the risks associated with it, one can indeed maintain a good position and a steady base for making wise decisions.
It is not so that any layperson can wake up and decide to take part in the forex or forex related activities. If you feel that you have some money, then by all ways you can go into investing it, but at your own risk. However, if you have no funds, as such for investment or any other activity, it is always better to stay away from them in order to get into a worst situation later on. It is quite important to understand the risks before you determine you are appropriate to trade in forex or not.
Let us have a look on some of risks associated with forex:
1.    A volatile market- forex is a market with a volatile environment. One cannot predict the future and hence, you will not be able to see precisely in which directions the prices may fluctuate. These fluctuations in the rates of the foreign currencies have a great impact on the rates of the forex agreement and there are chances that these modifications may go in a direction against you.
2.    Risk of losing your investments- you need a security margin form your forex broker to help you sell or purchase an off-exchange forex contract. You can even keep on hold your forex position with a number of times if your account value with a small amount of money relatively. This option is regarded as leverage in terms of forex. The small is the amount of deposit in association to the principal value of the agreement, the higher is the leverage. If there are any price fluctuations, as such, that go against you, then there are probabilities of losing a great amount as compared to your principal deposits. The total sum of money you lose will largely depend on your contract with the forex broker. It could be all of your deposits or might be in cases, more than the deposit amount.
3.    Over trading- this is another great money management error in forex trading. There is no proper defined goal of trading, as such in forex trading and hence to make maximum gains you need to define your own policy. It is definitely not an easy task managing a number of positions in a variety of forex trading markets. You need to have the ultimate aim defined for all your consecutive trades and make it sure that these goals are achieved by you before you enter the other position.

Forex Options Trading : The Basics

Monday, November 30th, 2009

Forex Options Market and stock market have many differences. Forex option trading is only applicable in the international currency market. This method is less risky but has very high potential.
Forex Options Trading is also buying of currencies and selling of currencies but there is a difference. An option can be purchased at a fixed price and sold at a fixed selling price before it expires. This way, after purchasing an option at price, if the market favors you and your option end up with a selling price higher than the buying price, you can profit instantly from the trade.
On the other hand, you suffer an instant loss when the market moves against you and your option end up below the buying price.
The only advantage is that the losses are subjected to a maximum of the price at which you purchased the option.
This is the basic working of the Forex Options Market. This market is meant for people who do not want to take high risk and at the same time wants good profits. The chances of earning a profit are very bright in this market as you can sit and decide upon which option to go for.
There are number of forex software available in the market. If you want to make profit from the Forex Option trading then you should be able to make use of these softwares as they provide you with accurate market analysis. You can also make use of the analysis tools such as charts and graphs to study the market trend. You can easily get these tools from your broker.
If you are a beginner, it will be very difficult for you to understand these charts and graphs as they are very complicated. What should you do now? Do not worry, there is a way. A number of automated forex softwares are available in the market. You can make use of these softwares. These softwares have the capability to predict the market trends accurately. This will help you in trading as you will be having an idea of the current market trend.
Forex Trading softwares can take care of your trading as well. There is a feature known as the “Auto-Pilot” which will make sure that you are in the market 24 hours a day and do trading whenever a good opportunity is there for you to make a profit.
In order to succeed in the Forex Options Market, one needs to have the skill to predict the market trend accurately. Forex software have the features like market analysis, data mining, forex networking. If you can make use of such forex software, you will surely benefit in the Forex Options Market.
In this article, we have highlighted the basic details of the Forex Options Market.

Daily Review 27/11/2009

Friday, November 27th, 2009

USD Dollar (USD)

The Dollar climbed against all majors after Dubai’s attempt to reschedule its debt by 6 month caused Europe Stocks to drop heavily and spurred investors to seek the safety of assets perceived as lower risk. Stocks market in U.S were close due to the Thanksgiving holiday. Crude oil fell by 3% closing at 76.2$ a barrel. Gold (XAU) closed almost unchanged at 1191.85 $ an ounce but dropped during Asia session falling back to 1170$ levels. No economic data expected today.

EURO (EUR)

The Euro fell against the Dollar following the collapse of stock markets in Europe as a result of Dubai’s debt rescheduling. EUR/USD pair traded with a low of 1.4959 and with a high of 1.5141. Loans to Euro zone households and firms fell in October for the second month in a row, coming at 0.3% vs. 0.7% forecast. No important data expected today.

EUR/USD – Last: 1.4945

Resistance

1.5020

1.5100

1.5144

Support

1.4913

1.4830

1.4800

British Pound (GBP)

The Pound fell versus the Dollar as stocks declined and a proposal by Dubai to delay debt payments prompted investors to seek what they perceive to be safer securities. Overall, GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6466 and with a high of 1.6725. CBI Realized Sales came out at 13 vs. 12 forecast.

GBP/USD – Last: 1.6406

Resistance

1.6530

1.6648

1.6720

Support

1.6376

Japanese Yen (JPY)

The Yen rallied to a 14-year high against the Dollar, climbing past the 85.00 level, on speculation Japanese monetary authorities will tolerate further appreciation of the currency. Overall, USD/JPY traded with a low of 84.81 and with a high of 87.48. Tokyo Core CPI came out better than expected at -1.9% vs. -2% forecast.

USD/JPY-Last: 86.37

Resistance

87.00

87.70

88.62

Support

85.80

85.00

Canadian dollar (CAD)

The Canadian Dollar weakened against its U.S. counterpart by the most in almost four weeks as Dubai’s plan to reschedule its debt spurred a sell-off in crude oil, gold and equities. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.0450 and with a high of 1.0620.Today, Current Account is expected at -12.9B vs. -11.2B prior.

CAD/USD – Last: 1.0626

Resistance

1.0641

1.0719

Support

1.0587

1.0530

1.0450

Research by http://www.ufxbank.com

What are the types of Forex option?

Thursday, November 26th, 2009

Forex trading options are referred as securities, which let option investors to realize gains without purchasing the underlying currency pair. In this article, we will discuss about what is Forex option and its different types. By using leverage, Forex options bring big profits for the Forex traders.  Forex traders also get losses with huge profits. Whereas, currency options are held with the underlying currency pair that results to earnings but minimize the risk. Sometimes the potential to earn have to be restricted to limit the downside in the transaction.

In Forex option trading, the risk of option writer is great. Because of this, many option brokers need high capital on the trader’s part when they intend to sell the options contract. All Forex traders do not provide option contracts to traders for the similar reason. It can be good try to find out a best Forex broker, who allows traders to do option trading with other conventional positions. Forex option trading has two kinds that are stop options and traditional options.

The first kind of options is what is also called as put or call option. In Forex trading, call is synonymous to “buy” and put is synonymous to purchase. The conventional option lets the trader to either purchase or sells put options that will give traders the right for exercising said option at a definite date as well as price that was formerly agreed upon by the option purchaser as well as the option seller. Forex traders have no obligation to exercise the said option if the time comes and when he refused to do so, however he will have to pay for the right to the option. The said payment is also known as premium. When the currency pair’s movement goes to the benefit of the traders, they exercise his right and purchase the pair.

He may then purchase or sell the pair at a price, which will earn him gains. If traders decide not to make use of his option, it can expire valueless. The only loss on the part of the traders is the minimal amount of the premium. Single payment options trading need a high premium on the traders even if it is a simple to set as well as carry out. What happen when in a SPOT is that traders forecast a currency pair scenario and quotes a premium. The scenario will include an agreed upon price as well as expiry date. When the traders purchase the SPOT option and his predicted scenario happens, his option become spot cash.
On Internet, you will get e-courses that are free to join. You can learn how to do Forex trading with options through these e-courses from the comfort of your home. These e-courses are the best guide to learn step-by-step process to start Forex trading business.

A Quick Overview on the Forex Options

Thursday, November 26th, 2009

Similarly like that of the foreign exchange market, the forex options market was also the privilege of the big companies, banks and financial institutions in the previous days. Nevertheless, with the advent of technology and internet, there are a big number of traders seen taking active part in the forex trade.
An agreement on the forex market along with the obligation to sell or purchase is not absolute and it has to be met at any cost. On the contrary, an option is the right given to the trader without obliging him to purchase or sell. The option holder can make the decision regarding implement it or not. In case of forex options it is not like that of the forex market wherein you purchase one currency and sell the other. Here the right to purchase also called call option is quite different from the right to sell referred as a put option. These 2 are completely different modes of dealings.
The right towards selling or purchasing an option is known as the striking price and the time period up to which it remains valid or active is known as the expiry date of the option. The amount paid for this option is known as the premium and this is the only investment that is needed in options trading. The more amount of loss that can be provided on an options agreement is indeed limited to the premium amount that is being paid.
If in case, on the date of expiry, the option holder incurs a loss by implementing the option, then he is given the right to allow his option expires without making use of it. This is termed as out of money option in terms of forex. Also understand that in American style of options, one can implement an option at any given time till its expiry date is reached. However, it case of European options, on the other hand, one can implement the option only on the date of its expiry.
Like all the currency traders even the option trader needs to understand as well as follow the forex markets in order to evaluate the upcoming trends in the market and observe on what conditions he is willing to trade his options. This similar software that is being used in forex trade is also beneficial to the option trader to assess the directions in which the forex market will move and thus send out the correct trading indicators.
This is all about options trading. It is very easy and once you get into it you will understand its significance. So what are you waiting for? Make up your mind and get ready to enter the world of forex in a totally different and unique way.

GoLearn Forex Analysis 26/11/2009

Thursday, November 26th, 2009

Greenback Makes Headlines by GoLearn Forex

The U.S Dollar made headlines yesterday unfortunately for the Greenback it was not positive.  The DXY, an index weighted basket of currencies against that Dollar, hit a low for the year touching just below 74.20 before a mild retreat.  EUR and CHF both took out near term resistance with the EUR touching an intra-day high of 1.5145 and the CHF dropped below Dollar parity to .9920.

Global Equity Markets were mostly up as the DJIA closed its session ahead 30.69 points to 10,464.40 before the U.S Holiday.  Gold struck 1,192 and Oil briefly crosses $78 a barrel before leveling off,  as Crude Oil inventories in the U.S were reported to be on the rise.

There are a number of economic data releases due out in Japan and the Euro-zone.  The ones to watch will be the CPI from the Euro-zone and the Jobless Rate in Japan.  Today is a U.S Holiday, so expect lighter than normal volumes across all markets.

Upcoming Forex Events for November 26, 2009

GBP  CBI Distributive Trades Survey  Forecast  11.00  Previous  8.00

EUR German CPI (MoM)Your browser may not support display of this image. Forecast  0.00%  Previous  0.10%

JPY Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) Forecast   -2.00%  Previous  -2.20%

NZD  Inflation Expectations (QoQ) Previous  2.30%

GoLearn Forex Year End Review

Year End:

Thanksgiving in the U.S marks the beginning of the Holiday Season.  The day after Thanksgiving known as Black Friday marks the commencement of the Holiday shopping season.  Many analysts view this particular season as one of the most important shopping seasons in recent history.  The idea is simple.  If the consumer stays home and sales are down significantly it may be the final nail in the coffin for many retailers who are still struggling from sluggish sales and hard to find credit.

The following are some important economic data releases to watch heading into the final month of 2009.  Economic data releases related to the Consumer, Housing, and the Federal Reserve will capture forex trader’s attention the most.  Let’s take a brief moment and highlight the key releases under those 3 sectors.

Consumer – “Retail Sales” will enable traders to gauge consumer spending and the impact on the retail market and its trickle-down effect.  The “Unemployment Rate” will be a good indicator of whether the consumer will derail, assist, or possibly be neutral in a pending recovery.

Housing – “Home Sales” both new and existing will continue to be very important as this is the sector that nearly caused the financial collapse. As many as 1 in 4 home owners are underwater so it is vital that home sales and home prices stabilize.

Federal Reserve – comments, minutes, and meetings dictate financial policy. Any speculation of a possible rate increase will strengthen the Greenback.  The reason behind why the FED may want or need to raise rates will be secondary to the actual intimation of a hike.

An additional variable to consider heading into year-end will be liquidity.  There are many ingredients that feed into this equation.  Many funds are up huge this year and want to lock in profits for their year-end closing of the books. This is very important given last year’s massive losses. Therefore you can expect typical end of year slack in volume.  Another factor that affects liquidity will be the actual hoarding of cash by corporations and banks in order to shore up balances sheets before they report their financials.  To this effect, we have already seen the 3 month T-Bill turn a negative yield as these institutions sock cash away.

Barring some catastrophic event most analysts believe that the Dollar will continue to depreciate. Here are some suggestions for trading the market.  Firstly, let’s look at today (Nov. 25th) we had positive prints for Jobless Claims and New Home Sales.  Positive means that things are less negative.  The economy is losing fewer jobs but still not adding any new ones either. The Dollar tanked on the news (see chart below) as its G-10 rivals advanced smartly.

INSERT CHART

Until the news turns truly positive (and not just less negative) it allows traders to take risks.  Traders view the economy as stabilizing but not to the extent that the FED can raise rates.  When data releases are negative the impact is measured in “derailments”.  Derailments are defined as the potential to slow or even reverse a global recovery.  In summary, go short on the Dollar on news which is positive (meaning less negative than the prior month).  Go long the Dollar against the currencies that appreciated the most against it when truly negative data prints.WRCS

Analysis by http://www.golearnforex.net

Daily Review 26/11/2009

Thursday, November 26th, 2009

USD Dollar (USD)

The Dollar fell across the board after the Federal Reserve said the global recession is reaching its end and signaled it will tolerate a weaker Dollar, which encouraged investors to buy riskier assets. Unemployment Claims came out batter than the forecast at 466K vs.500K forecast and New Homes Sales climbed more than forecast at 430K vs. 408K forecast. NASDAQ and Dow Jones rose by 0.32% and 0.29% respectively, crude oil jumped by 2.6% closed nearly to 78$ a barrel and Gold (XAU) rose by 1.8% reached to a new record high during the day (above 1190$ ) but finally closing at 1187$ an ounce . No economic data expected today.

EURO (EUR)

The Euro surged to a 15 month high against the Dollar after the Federal Reserve refrained from voicing concern over the U.S. currency’s decline. GFK German Consumer Climate came out at 3.7 vs. 4.2 forecast. Overall, EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4955 and with a high of 1.5144. Today, German Prelim CPI is expected at 0.0% vs. 0.1% prior and M3 Money Supply is expected at 0.7% vs. 1.8% prior.

EUR/USD – Last: 1.5102

Resistance

1.5144

Support

1.5095

1.5040

1.5000

British Pound (GBP)

The Pound rose versus the Dollar after the GDP report data was released and showed the UK economy shrank less than previously estimated in the third quarter, coming out at -0.3%, bringing the longest recession on record closer to an end. Overall, GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6574 and with a high of 1.6744. Today, CBI Realized Sales is expected at 12 vs. 8 prior.

GBP/USD – Last: 1.6654

Resistance

1.6724

1.6820

Support

1.6643

1.6503

1.6472

Japanese Yen (JPY)

The Yen continued to strengthen versus the Dollar after breaking below 88 for the first time in 10 months as the Federal Reserve’s signal that it will tolerate a weaker Dollar encouraged investors to buy assets outside America. Overall, USD/JPY traded with a low of 87.21 and with a high of 88.63, trade balance came out better than expected at 0.42T vs. 0.31T forecast. No economic data expected today.

USD/JPY-Last: 86.51

Resistance

87.48

88.37

89.13

Support

86.29

Canadian dollar (CAD)

The Canadian Dollar strengthened to the highest level in a week versus the Dollar after Russia’s central bank said it will add the currency to its reserves and as copper rose and gold headed for the longest string of gains in almost three decades. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.0449 and with a high of 1.0583. No economic data expected today.

CAD/USD – Last: 1.0500

Resistance

1.0526

1.0642

1.0726

Support

1.0450

Research by http://www.ufxbank.com

Facts about large number of FOREX Options of trading

Wednesday, November 25th, 2009

In the terminology that is being used in FOREX, FOREX trading is always referred to as the kind of trading where exchange of a large number of products as well as commodities like currency, stock and so on between different traders across the world takes place.
What is actually FOREX trading all about?
A FOREX option is the one that is referred to as an agreement that is signed between a seller and a purchaser. According to this agreement of trading a trader is the one that has all the rights, but they do not have any sort of compulsion to sell or purchase a specific quantity of one currency against some other currency at a price that is already being decided and on or before a specific and allotted date in the future. In return of all this, buyer of the FOREX option has to pay an amount of money but don’t worry this is only for a single time and the price that is paid is known as the premium to the seller.
There are quite a large number of Forms as well as Types of FOREX Options
Generally there are two most important forms of trading option that are available in the trading market of FOREX trading or in stocks trading. These are as follows:
- The first form of option trading is known as call option
- The second and the last form of option trading is known as the put option
Now let’s talk about the first option that is known as the Call Option
If you are dealing with call option, then you need to know all the relevant details about it. In this type of option a buyer or the holder of the currency has all the rights to purchase a certain amount of the specific currency at a specific price value or at a price value that is known as the strike price and that too on a certain date.
The second option of trading that we are going to discuss is known by the name of Put Option.
Put option is the one that is really very essential for carrying out a successful trading. In this particular kind of trading option, the buyer or the holder of the currency or the stock has all the rights to sell a definite amount of the particular currency and that too at a specific price or a price that is known as the strike price.
Even FOREX options can also be divided into two most important categories and they are as follows:
•    The first one is known as the Vanilla Option
•    and the last one is popularly known as the Exotic Option.
At one time or other these options of trading tend to act really very helpful.